We calculate the recovery rate by comparing actual principal cash flow (net of write-offs) that occurred after the default with principal cash flow that we would have expected from the loan in case it had paid according to the agreed schedule. This measure allows us to determine the expected capital loss on loans that default.
Data is aggregated to larger cohorts and recent data are excluded as otherwise outliers will skew the results too much (e.g. 1 customer repaying the full amount after default at once). On the Bondora level this means excluding the last three months of defaults and using country based quarterly cohorts. Data on individual portfolios should likely be viewed on a higher level either using yearly country based cohorts or simply quarterly cohorts across all countries.